Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
