A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
